Car’s have had an incredible impact on our society, and it will be disrupted by transportation as a service. This summarizes John’s Zimmers article the third transportation revolution.

America built for cars

  • Car in use 4% of the time (1h/day)
  • 250 million cars
  • 2 Trillion in car ownership (250M * 4K/yr) [not including infra]
  • 9K/yr car ownership [2K, insurance; 3K depreciation; Parking? Fuel? Maintenance;] – seems high = maybe 5;
  • Unnamed costs: Infra, Traffic, Time Delay From Traffic, Time wasted in transport.
  • 700 Million Parking Spaces
  • 6K sq miles of parking (140 sq miles Seattle/Bellevue/Redmond)

  • Cost of cars:
    • Roads
    • Parking Lots
    • Noise
    • Polution
    • Driveways
    • Garages
    • Accidents
  • Autonomous Vehicle Fleets become widespread, and the majority of ride sharing rides
    • Autononmous cars being created - now.
    • Individuals won’t give up thier cars to share (like Elon musk thinks - that’d be like I rent rooms in my house while I’m at work).
    • TaaS business => expert @ manage utilization, given peak load => Manage autonomous fleet.
  • By 2025, car ownership will end in cities
    • Already happending
      • 24 year old w/Licenses – 1983: 92%; 2016: 77%
      • 16 year old: 1983: 46%; 2016:24%
    • Once car sharing cost drops below 5K/year, no financial advantage to drive.
  • Cities Physical Environment will change radically
    • Remove 50% of cars, Tonnes of open space
    • People out more, places safer, placers greener, places denser, better urban centers.

First and Second Transportation Revolution

  • Loosly connected agricultural communities
  • 1860:
    • Add 20K miles of track
    • Where tracks, went cities emerged (think the rivers of old) - chigaco, baltimore, LA
  • 1920s assembly line mass produced cards:
    • People free but
    • More cars => More roads, more parking.
    • Cities optimize for cars, not community
    • Highways cut up neighborhoods
    • Streets used to narrow and inviting.
    • People could come together outside.
  • Steets now optimized for cars, smaller side walks -> no sidewalk -> No foot traffic, No corner stores => Malls

The problem with cars

  • With all the people moving into cities, not enough room for all the cars/traffic/parking
  • Too expensive, next biggest expense after housing

Third Transportation Revolutoin

  • Ride sharing first stab at the revolution
  • Different Transport options
    • Don’t use it a lot: pay as you go
    • Use a lot: Unlimited miles
    • Impress a date: Premium Vehicle Pack
  • Cost for fleets lower for car markup/gas/insurance/parking/etc - pass savings on to you.

Human to autonomous transition

  • Think 2G->4G rollover.
  • First very limited availablity, low speeds
  • Then higher speeds, but lower area
  • Then better speeds everywhere
  • In the interim, humans close the gap.
  • In interim, bigger need for humans as there is more demand for coverage, before the robots can take over.

Cars used to define our cities, now we need to redefine them

  • Early examples exit - SF - Ferry building, blocked by highway. Destroy highway now 51% more housing, 25K visits/year:w
  • More listed in article.