Car’s have had an incredible impact on our society, and it will be disrupted by transportation as a service. This summarizes John’s Zimmers article the third transportation revolution.
America built for cars
- Car in use 4% of the time (1h/day)
- 250 million cars
- 2 Trillion in car ownership (250M * 4K/yr) [not including infra]
- 9K/yr car ownership [2K, insurance; 3K depreciation; Parking? Fuel? Maintenance;] – seems high = maybe 5;
- Unnamed costs: Infra, Traffic, Time Delay From Traffic, Time wasted in transport.
- 700 Million Parking Spaces
6K sq miles of parking (140 sq miles Seattle/Bellevue/Redmond)
- Cost of cars:
- Parking Lots
- Autonomous Vehicle Fleets become widespread, and the majority of ride sharing rides
- Autononmous cars being created - now.
- Individuals won’t give up thier cars to share (like Elon musk thinks - that’d be like I rent rooms in my house while I’m at work).
- TaaS business => expert @ manage utilization, given peak load => Manage autonomous fleet.
- By 2025, car ownership will end in cities
- Already happending
- 24 year old w/Licenses – 1983: 92%; 2016: 77%
- 16 year old: 1983: 46%; 2016:24%
- Once car sharing cost drops below 5K/year, no financial advantage to drive.
- Already happending
- Cities Physical Environment will change radically
- Remove 50% of cars, Tonnes of open space
- People out more, places safer, placers greener, places denser, better urban centers.
First and Second Transportation Revolution
- Loosly connected agricultural communities
- Add 20K miles of track
- Where tracks, went cities emerged (think the rivers of old) - chigaco, baltimore, LA
- 1920s assembly line mass produced cards:
- People free but
- More cars => More roads, more parking.
- Cities optimize for cars, not community
- Highways cut up neighborhoods
- Streets used to narrow and inviting.
- People could come together outside.
- Steets now optimized for cars, smaller side walks -> no sidewalk -> No foot traffic, No corner stores => Malls
The problem with cars
- With all the people moving into cities, not enough room for all the cars/traffic/parking
- Too expensive, next biggest expense after housing
Third Transportation Revolutoin
- Ride sharing first stab at the revolution
- Different Transport options
- Don’t use it a lot: pay as you go
- Use a lot: Unlimited miles
- Impress a date: Premium Vehicle Pack
- Cost for fleets lower for car markup/gas/insurance/parking/etc - pass savings on to you.
Human to autonomous transition
- Think 2G->4G rollover.
- First very limited availablity, low speeds
- Then higher speeds, but lower area
- Then better speeds everywhere
- In the interim, humans close the gap.
- In interim, bigger need for humans as there is more demand for coverage, before the robots can take over.
Cars used to define our cities, now we need to redefine them
- Early examples exit - SF - Ferry building, blocked by highway. Destroy highway now 51% more housing, 25K visits/year:w
- More listed in article.