Transportation as a Service

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Transportation as a service is the third transportation revolution. The first revolution was the addition of 20,000 miles of track which led to the emergence of cities. The second revolution was the assembly line which mass produced cars. The third revolution is ride sharing which is a different transport option. The Fourth transportation revolution will be the human to autonomous transition. The fifth revolution will be the redefining of our cities.

Car’s have had an incredible impact on our society, and it will be disrupted by transportation as a service. This summarizes John’s Zimmers article

America built for cars

  • Car in use 4% of the time (1h/day)
  • 250 million cars
  • 2 Trillion in car ownership (250M * 4K/yr) [not including infra]
  • 9K/yr car ownership [2K, insurance; 3K depreciation; Parking? Fuel? Maintenance;] – seems high = maybe 5;
  • Unnamed costs: Infra, Traffic, Time Delay From Traffic, Time wasted in transport.
  • 700 Million Parking Spaces

  • 6K sq miles of parking (140 sq miles Seattle/Bellevue/Redmond)

  • Cost of cars:
    • Roads
    • Parking Lots
    • Noise
    • Pollution
    • Driveways
    • Garages
    • Accidents
  • Autonomous Vehicle Fleets become widespread, and the majority of ride sharing rides
    • Autonomous cars being created - now.
    • Individuals won’t give up their cars to share (like Elon musk thinks - that’d be like I rent rooms in my house while I’m at work).
    • TaaS business => expert @ manage utilization, given peak load => Manage autonomous fleet.
  • By 2025, car ownership will end in cities
    • Already happening
      • 24 year old w/Licenses – 1983: 92%; 2016: 77%
      • 16 year old: 1983: 46%; 2016:24%
    • Once car sharing cost drops below 5K/year, no financial advantage to drive.
  • Cities Physical Environment will change radically
    • Remove 50% of cars, Tonnes of open space
    • People out more, places safer, places greener, places denser, better urban centers.

First and Second Transportation Revolution

  • Loosely connected agricultural communities
  • 1860:
    • Add 20K miles of track
    • Where tracks, went cities emerged (think the rivers of old) - Chicago, Baltimore, LA
  • 1920s assembly line mass produced cards:
    • People free but
    • More cars => More roads, more parking.
    • Cities optimize for cars, not community
    • Highways cut up neighborhoods
    • Streets used to be narrow and inviting.
    • People could come together outside.
  • Streets now optimized for cars, smaller side walks -> no sidewalk -> No foot traffic, No corner stores => Malls

The problem with cars

  • With all the people moving into cities, not enough room for all the cars/traffic/parking
  • Too expensive, next biggest expense after housing

Third Transportation Revolution

  • Ride sharing first stab at the revolution
  • Different Transport options
    • Don’t use it a lot: pay as you go
    • Use a lot: Unlimited miles
    • Impress a date: Premium Vehicle Pack
  • Cost for fleets lower for car markup/gas/insurance/parking/etc - pass savings on to you.

Human to autonomous transition

  • Think 2G->4G rollover.
  • First very limited availablity, low speeds
  • Then higher speeds, but lower area
  • Then better speeds everywhere
  • In the interim, humans close the gap.
  • In interim, bigger need for humans as there is more demand for coverage, before the robots can take over.

Cars used to define our cities, now we need to redefine them

  • Early examples exit - SF - Ferry building, blocked by highway. Destroy highway now 51% more housing, 25K visits/year
  • More listed in article.